Logistics

LOGISTICS ASSIGNMENT

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LOGISTICS ASSIGNMENT

Select one of the case studies at the end of either chapter 7 or chapter 8. After reading the case study, respond to the questions in a 3-4 page paper.

The requirements below must be met for your paper to be accepted and graded:

· Write between 750-1,000 words (approximately 3-4 pages) using Microsoft Word in APA style, see example below.

· Use font size 12 and 1” margins.

· Include cover page and reference page.

· At least 80% of your paper must be original content/writing.

· No more than 20% of your content/information may come from references.

· Use at least three references from outside the course material, one reference must be from EBSCOhost. Text book, lectures, and other materials in the course may be used, but are not counted toward the three reference requirement.

· Cite all reference material (data, dates, graphs, quotes, paraphrased words, values, etc.) in the paper and list on a reference page in APA style.

CASE 7.

1Tires for You, Inc.Tires for You, Inc. (TFY), founded in 1987, is an automotive repair shop specializing in replacement tires. Located in Altoona, Pennsylvania, TFY has grown successfully over the past few years because of the addition of a new general manager, Ian Overbaugh. Since tire replacement is a major portion of TFY’s business (it also performs oil changes, small mechanical repairs, etc.), Ian was surprised at the lack of forecasts for tire consumption for the company. His senior mechanic, Skip Grenoble, told him that they usually stocked for this year what they sold last year. He readily admitted that several times throughout the season stockouts occurred and customers had to go elsewhere for tires.Although many tire replacements were for defective or destroyed tires, most tires were installed on cars whose original tires had worn out. Most often, four tires were installed at the same time. Ian was determined to get a better idea of how many tires to hold in stock during the various months of the year. Listed below is a summary of individual tire sales by month:

PERIOD TIRES USED

2014October 9,797

November 11,134

December 10,687

2015

January 9,724

February 8,786

March 9,254

April 10,691

May 9,256

June 8,700

July 10,192

August 10,751

September 9,724

October 10,193

November 11,599

December 11,130

Ian has hired you to determine the best technique for forecasting TFY demand based on the given data.

CASE QUESTIONS

1. Calculate a forecast using a simple three-month moving average.

2. Calculate a forecast using a three-period weighted moving average. Use weights of 0.60, 0.30, and 0.10 for the most recent period, the second most recent period, and the third most recent period, respectively

.3. Calculate a forecast using the exponential smoothing method. Assume the forecast for period 1 is 9,500. Use alpha = 0.40.

4. Once you have calculated the forecasts based on the above data, determine the error terms by comparing them to the actual sales for 2012 given below:

PERIOD TIRES USED

2016January 10,696

February 9,665

March 10,179

April 11,760

May 9,150

June 9,571

July 8,375

August 11,826

September 10,696

October 11,212

November 9,750

December 9,380

5. Based on the three methods used to calculate a forecast for TFY, which method produced the best forecast? Why? What measures of forecast error did you use? How could you improve upon this forecast?